Press. voanews.com.
Monday’s first
presidential debate between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump
may draw, by some estimates, 100 million viewers, who will be able to take the
measure of the candidates for the first time on the same stage together. The
stakes for both contenders are enormous. Viewers will not only be paying
attention to what is said, but how it’s said and how the candidates react to
one another.
Which Trump will
show up?
The debate will
be a key moment for Trump, who has closed the polling gap in recent weeks
against Democrat Hillary Clinton in part because he has presented himself as
more disciplined than he has in the past. He has also focused on his central
theme:
“We will make
America strong again. We will make America safe again, and we will make America
great again!” Trump told supporters at a rally in Fort Myers, Florida, one of
the critical swing states where he has drawn even with Clinton in recent polls.
For her part,
Clinton looks to the debate to reassure her supporters and to push her message
of wanting to build a more inclusive economy, as she did during a recent rally
in Orlando, Florida. “We are all of value. In the United States of America, the
greatest country in the world, we believe everyone is created equal!”
Intense scrutiny
amid tightening polls
The first of the
three debates, traditionally the most watched, comes at a potentially
game-changing moment, said Matthew Dallek of George Washington University.
“Right now the election is closer than a lot of people anticipated, and so it
matters a great deal for both of them.”
Televised
presidential debates began in 1960 with Richard Nixon and John Kennedy. Since
then, the debates have had an impact on some but not necessarily all
presidential elections. “In a normal year, the debates are one of the only ways
to move the needles after the conventions. They are the moment where more
people tune in and watch,” said George Mason University associate professor of
government Jeremy Mayer.
Trump and
Clinton appear to be prepping for the debates in different ways. Clinton has
spent a lot of time in debate practice, including mock face-offs with
surrogates portraying Trump.
Trump’s advance
work has been reportedly less time-consuming and intense. He also took a swipe
at Clinton during a rally in Pennsylvania. “Well, they say she has been
practicing for the debate. Some people think she’s sleeping.”
Democrats hope a
more reckless version of Trump shows up in the first debate, more in keeping
with his past performances in some of the Republican primary debates. But
Trump's new campaign staff seems to have had some success of late in keeping
him focused and less distracted by the temptation of launching personal
attacks.
Different
audience
Both Trump and
Clinton performed well in their respective party primary debates earlier this
year. It is possible to argue that Trump won the Republican nomination by
making the most of his debate performances and his slashing attacks on rivals
like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.
But Trump will
be playing to a different audience in the debates with Clinton. He will be
seeking to improve his image with moderate Republican voters and undecided
independents who likely won’t be swayed by the kind of partisan attacks he
launched in the primary debates.
Clinton will
also be able to call on her experience in the primary debates with her main
challenger, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Clinton generally was able to hold
her own in a number of the debates with Sanders and often put him on the
defensive by raising questions about the practicality of some of his proposals.
But Clinton has
her challenges as well. Polls show a majority of voters don't trust her. The
controversial way she handled questions about her use of a private email server
while secretary of state continues to dog her in the final weeks of this
election campaign.
Trump’s
unpredictable nature also presents a challenge for Clinton as she prepares for
the first debate, said Georgetown University’s Stephen Wayne. “The thing about
Donald Trump is that he is not as disciplined as Hillary Clinton. If you get
under Donald Trump’s skin, he is apt to react in a very personal way.
Opportunity and
risk
Both contenders
suffer from high disapproval ratings from voters, and the debates represent
both opportunity and risk. “What a debate can do is give a candidate a second
chance to make a different impression or cement a negative impression,” said
Jeremy Mayer.
In recent years,
presidential debates may have been less consequential to election outcomes than
they were early on. “We can think of two presidential debates in American
history, the first between [Democrat John] Kennedy and [Republican Richard]
Nixon (1960) and the second between [Republican Gerald] Ford and [Democrat
Jimmy] Carter (1976), where mistakes were made or appearances didn’t look right
that seemed to have an impact on the outcome,” said Georgetown’s Stephen Wayne. Where will be a
total of three presidential debates and one face-off between the two
vice-presidential candidates, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence.