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In U.S. presidential politics, not all states are treated equally. In
the final days before the November 8 election, Democrat Hillary Clinton and
Republican Donald Trump are focused on a small handful of so called
“battleground” or “swing” states that will determine who will be the next
president of the United States. About two-thirds of the 50 states generally
lean toward one party or the other, leaving a dozen or so states that are up
for grabs every four years.
The U.S. elects a president through the state-by-state accumulation of
votes through the Electoral College, where the candidate who wins the popular
vote in a given state is then awarded all of that state’s electoral votes.
There are two minor exceptions in Maine and Nebraska where some of the
electoral votes are awarded by congressional district.
In the final days of the campaign, Clinton and Trump repeatedly target
the same handful of states, which is why both White House hopefuls are making
frequent visits to Ohio, Florida and North Carolina and small groups of other
states that loom pivotal on election day.
Red, blue and swing states
For several years the United States has been sharply divided
politically, with many states in presidential elections leaning toward one
party or the other. “In many states, one party has a very big lead and there is
no sense in spending a lot of resources at the presidential level in that
state,” said Georgetown University analyst Stephen Wayne.
That leaves about a dozen so-called “battleground” or “swing” states
where Trump and Clinton spend most of their time, said George Mason University
expert Jeremy Mayer. “In the modern presidential campaign, you run campaigns
only in about 12 states. The list can change from year to year, although in the
last three election cycles, it is fairly stable.”
The swing states that get the most attention include large states like
Florida, Ohio and Colorado, as well as smaller ones like North Carolina,
Virginia, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. And Mayer adds voters in those states
get the brunt of the political ad blitz. “It makes those 12 states really the
targets of this whole election discourse. So both campaigns in a normal year
would have massive ground operations, would have endless TV ads and would be
phone-calling and robot-calling voters in those 12 states.”
This year, the Clinton campaign is trying to make history by expanding
the competitive map to historically Republican states like Arizona, Georgia and
even Texas. Polls show a fairly close race in Arizona in particular and Clinton
is within striking distance in both Georgia and Texas. Arizona last voted for a
Democrat in 1996 and Texas supported Democrat Jimmy Carter back in 1976.
Democrats' electoral advantage
Since the 1992 election won by Bill Clinton, Democrats have been able to
count on winning 18 states plus the District of Columbia, with a combined total
of 242 electoral votes. Remember, it takes 270 out of the 538 electoral votes
to win the presidency.
Republicans, on the other hand, have been able to count on 13 mostly
smaller states with a combined electoral vote total of just 102. The remainder
are the so-called “battleground” states where the election outcome is usually
decided.
Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton cheer
for a television camera as they wait for a rally to begin where Clinton and
former vice president Al Gore will speak, Oct. 11, 2016, in Miami.
Clinton’s battleground edge
This year, Hillary Clinton and the Democrats appear to have a decided
advantage with Clinton leading in key states like Colorado, New Hampshire and
Virginia and battling Trump in close races in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
This year’s Electoral map has put Trump at a disadvantage, said American
University analyst Austin Hart. “He’s got to win voters in Florida, Ohio,
perhaps Colorado and Nevada. He’s got to shore up things in Pennsylvania if he
can. So he has a heavy load in front of him.”
Most of the scenarios that would project a Trump victory involve him
winning most of the swing states up for grabs including Florida, Ohio, North
Carolina and even Pennsylvania, which has not voted for a Republican presidential
candidate since 1988. Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Donald
Trump cheer during a campaign rally, Oct. 24, 2016, in Tampa, Fla.
Declining white vote
Changing demographics also loom as a growing challenge for Republicans.
White voters are likely to make up about 70 percent of all voters in this
year’s election, as the country continues to diversify. In 1980, whites made up
88 percent of the electorate. The Cook Political Report also notes that in
1980, Republican Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won in a
landslide. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney improved on that number. He won 59
percent of white voters, but lost to President Barack Obama by four points
overall.
Republican strategist John Feehery sees the two parties headed in
different directions. “It is a liberal, progressive party of coalitions, ethnic
coalitions. And the Republican Party is a coalition of basically white voters
of various stripes of conservatism.”
Targeting undecideds
In the final days of the campaign, the candidates will target a
relatively small group of voters in a handful of states where the election
hangs in the balance. “The question is now that sliver of independents,” said
American University analyst Jennifer Lawless. “But it’s not only the sliver of
independents. It’s smaller than that. It’s the sliver of independents who live
in battleground states. So we are talking about a very, very small percentage
of the population.”
Americans are now making a final decision between two flawed candidates
in one of the most divisive elections in U.S. history, and the focus remains on
a handful of states that will likely determine the outcome.