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Faced with disappointing polling numbers and less than three weeks to
bridge the gap, Donald Trump on Friday nonetheless stayed upbeat as he
campaigned in two key battleground states. "I honestly believe we're going
to win," the Republican presidential candidate told a rally in North
Carolina before heading to the swing state of Pennsylvania.
Trump highlighted three recent polls showing him ahead of his rival,
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who is campaigning Friday in
the hotly contested state of Ohio. But as the race enters its final phase, the
reality is that Trump is playing catchup.
New states in play
Clinton's most important edge is evident when you look at the
state-by-state electoral map. According to the FiveThirtyEight website, Clinton
is forecast to win 341 electoral votes, compared to Trump's 196.
That is mostly due to Clinton's small but significant lead in the
handful of traditional swing states, which typically decide a presidential
election. Most years, those states include Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa,
New Hampshire and a few others. But this year, swing states are popping up
everywhere.
Some recent polls have shown a shockingly tight race in longtime
Republican strongholds such as Georgia, Arizona, Utah and even Texas. It raises
the question of whether Trump has a viable path toward winning the presidency. "If
he can't win Utah, he can't pull it off," said Reed Galen, a political
consultant who worked on both successful campaigns of ex-President George W.
Bush.
Trump has just a one-point lead over McMullin and a five-point lead over
Clinton according to the latest Utah poll, released Friday by UtahPolicy.com. Mormons
make up a large percentage of Utah, and are "singularly disgusted" at
Trump's crass comments about women, Galen says. Many Utah residents may also
find it attractive that McMullin is a member of the Mormon church.
Minorities, women skeptical
Trump has also struggled to win over several other crucial voting blocs,
such as African Americans, Latinos, and suburban women — factors that help
explain his standing in states like Georgia and Arizona. So far there is little
evidence to suggest Trump is changing his strategy to address his deficits in
the new battleground states. Instead, he is focusing on traditional swing
states.
Trump has also doubled down on his message to his far-right base,
lashing out at more moderate Republicans who have rejected his candidacy and
refusing to say whether he will accept the results of an election loss. That
pattern reflects Trump's inability to grow a sufficient base of support, says
Gary Nordlinger, a professor at the Graduate School of Political Management of
George Washington University.
"This could have been a very winnable campaign for him, but he
would have had to stop saying and doing thoughtless things," Nordlinger
said. "I have never seen a candidate with so many self-inflicted
wounds."