Press. voanews.com.
With nine weeks
to go to Election Day, the U.S. presidential contest between Democrat Hillary
Clinton and Republican Donald Trump appears to have narrowed to a virtual dead
heat. A CNN/ORC poll Tuesday showed Trump, a real estate mogul and former
reality television show host running for elected office for the first time,
edging ahead of Clinton, a former U.S. secretary of state, by a 45 percent to
43 percent margin, while a collection of polls compiled by
realclearpolitics.com gives her about a 3 percentage-point advantage.
Clinton, looking
to become the country's first female president, had surged to an 8
percentage-point lead over Trump in the immediate aftermath of the national
Democratic and Republican presidential nominating conventions in July.
But the bounce
in support each gained from their respective conventions seems now to have
evaporated, with polling throughout the country showing that the results in
state-by-state matchups between the two contenders is often close, particularly
in about 10 battleground election states where the outcome of the November 8
election is likely to be decided. The winner will replace President Barack
Obama when he leaves office in January.
U.S.
presidential elections are not determined by the national popular vote but
rather in each of the 50 states, with each state's influence on the outcome weighted
by its population. A Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll said Tuesday that its
massive poll of 74,000 registered voters over the last three weeks of August
showed Clinton with an advantage in the Electoral College because she is
winning states with bigger populations.
The newspaper
said Clinton, the wife of former President Bill Clinton, was ahead of Trump by
4 percentage points or more in 20 states, adding up to 244 of the 270 Electoral
College votes she needs to become the country's 45th president. Trump also is
ahead by that margin in 20 states, but because they mostly are smaller states,
his edge adds up to only 126 electoral votes. The Post said that in the 10
remaining states, with 168 electoral votes, neither candidate had a lead of 4
percentage points or more.
With two other
candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein,
included in the polling, Clinton's margin narrows somewhat, with even fewer
states showing Trump or Clinton with a lead of 4 percentage points or more. George
Washington University political scientist John Sides told VOA that "the
usual lesson here is to ignore any one poll," such as the CNN survey
showing Trump pulling ahead.
"The
national polls have narrowed a little bit, but Clinton still has a clear
lead," Sides said. "This in turn translates into a significant
Electoral College advantage." John Hudak, deputy director of the Center
for Effective Public Management, said, "I think what the CNN poll tells us
is that like most presidential races, this one is close at the national
level."
"Polls have
certainly tightened statistically over the past couple of weeks," Hudak
said, "but I think by any metric and whether it is a poll of national
polls or whether it's a look at the state level, I think it's still fairly
clear that Clinton has a notable advantage."
Clinton, heading
to a campaign event Tuesday, disparaged Trump, as she has in recent weeks, for
his refusal to release his U.S. tax returns, something American presidential
candidates have done for four decades.
"He clearly
has something to hide," Clinton told reporters aboard her campaign
aircraft. She alleged that his business career had been marked by "scams,
frauds and questionable relationships." Trump has said he will release his
2015 tax returns only after federal auditors are done reviewing them.
He campaigned
Tuesday in the mid-Atlantic state of Virginia, attacking Clinton's support for
the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that the United States and five other world powers
negotiated with Tehran to restrain its ability to develop nuclear weaponry.
Trump said the pact endangers Israel's existence.
"This was a
deal at the highest level of incompetence. Look at how bad her decisions have
been," he said.
Rocky road for
both candidates
The CNN poll showing
Trump edging ahead seemed to indicate that he had weathered a difficult August,
when he for a second time shuffled his top campaign aides; feuded with a Muslim
couple whose son, a U.S. military officer, was killed in fighting in Iraq more
than a decade ago; and offered voters conflicting versions of how he would
change U.S. immigration policies.
But at the same
time, Clinton has faced new questions about her use of an unsecured, private
email server during her tenure as the top U.S. diplomat from 2009 to 2013.
U.S.
investigators determined that she was "extremely careless" in her
handling of classified national security material in her emails but that no
criminal charges were warranted. Trump and Clinton will meet face to face
September 26, the date of the first of three planned debates between them, with
the other two scheduled in October.
Trump won the
endorsement Tuesday of 88 retired generals and admirals, who said they believed
he would rebuild the country's military and secure its borders. In recent
weeks, Clinton has also been endorsed by a large contingent of former national
security officials, including some who have served under Republican presidents.
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